June 2016 Advisory Commentary

May saw a relative continuation of this year’s volatility, but with a surprisingly positive jump over the last week of the month. Oil continued to be a major driver in the market, finishing up 5.31% for May and now up 9.01% year to date after seeing a nearly 30% drop for the year in mid-February.

We utilized the recent run up at the very end of May as an opportunity to lighten up a bit on risk, mainly in the fixed income area. We exited our international and higher-risk bond fund allocation in favor of more domestic and diversified fixed income exposure. This move also added to our floating-rate loan allocation. We see that area having a bit more wind at its back, given the market’s higher conviction that the Federal Reserve will raise rates 1-2 more times this year.

On the equity side of the ledger, we exited our small remaining allocation to aggressive & concentrated growth equities in favor of a greater position in “value” stocks. The value-oriented area is having a better go of it so far this year as the price of oil continues to recover and the earnings momentum of “growth” stocks is becoming more suspect with each earnings report.

No new highs for 16 years. The S&P 500 last made a new all-time high on May 21, 2015. It made many new highs from 2013 through that May 2015 peak as well. But that is on a “price only” basis, however. If you adjusted for inflation, the S&P 500 still isn’t above the March 2000 peak. In other words, you could argue that it’s really been over 16 years since the last all-time high, not just over one year.

Brian Weckman, RFC
Chief Investment Officer
Actis Wealth Management L.C.